Water Crux MerlinTier 3
at Ascent Christchurch
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.4%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1298
· median 1298
· range 1298–1298
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1208
Q3 1405
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.8% | -11.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
